INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
ANALYSIS & PERSPECTIVES ON SPORTS MEDIA, VIEWERSHIP, AND DATA-DRIVEN STRATEGY
Model Results: 2025 Bowl Season Attendance Predictions Recap
1/23/2026
At the end of bowl season, we at Collegiate Sports Management Group evaluated our 2025 attendance predictions for the non-CFP bowl games. This analysis focused on overall accuracy, key patterns, and season-long insights instead of individual games.
Big Picture Results
Our post-event analysis showed the model performed well directionally and consistently identified relative demand tiers across the non-CFP bowls.
The model was most effective when distinguishing:
High-demand vs. low-demand bowl games
Destination and regional anchor games
High-profile matchups with more stable attendance profiles
Although exact attendance totals varied, the model met its main objective by correctly ranking expected demand throughout the bowl ecosystem.
2025-26 BOWL GAME RESULTS
Where the model nailed it
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Finished within ~1% of actual attendance. Destination bowl dynamics and venue size behaved exactly as historical data suggested.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Regional proximity, venue novelty, and brand mix produced turnout right in line with expectations, even with cold weather in play.
Where it was directionally right
StaffDNA Cure Bowl: The model correctly flagged strong regional interest, but slightly overstated how much of that interest converted into paid attendance — a useful calibration insight rather than a structural miss.
Where it missed (and why that matters)
Gasparilla Bowl: Brand power alone did not overcome Florida market saturation and the absence of a true regional anchor. This miss helped identify where travel and casual-demand assumptions need tighter ceilings.
WHAT DROVE ATTENDANCE VARIANCE
Where Variance was Most Notable
Attendance variance in 2025 was not evenly distributed. Larger gaps between projected and actual attendance were concentrated around a few factors.
Common characteristics of higher-variance games included:
Matchups without a true regional fanbase
Large NFL venues located in lower-demand bowl markets
Smaller fanbases playing in-state or regional assumptions that did not translate into actual travel
Situations where local demand played a larger role than historical averages suggested
These patterns reinforced that attendance outcomes depend heavily on context, even within the same bowl tier.
Travel Feasibility vs Travel Distance
A key takeaway from 2025 was the distinction between travel distance and travel feasibility.
Miles traveled measured true distance but did not always reflect how feasible travel was for fans. Games with short turnaround times, reliance on flights, or limited destination appeal often underperformed beyond what distance alone would predict.
In these cases, logistical issues, rather than geography alone, played a major role in decreased attendance.
The Role of Fan Expectations
Another consistent theme in 2025 was the impact of fan expectations and emotional context. Attendance varied greatly based on how fans viewed the season and the bowl:
Programs accustomed to CFP-level success frequently drew less interest in non-CFP bowls
First-time or long-absent bowl teams frequently exceeded expectations due to novelty and excitement
Teams finishing around .500 underperformed when the season felt disappointing relative to recent years
These conditions showed that bowl attendance is determined by matchup quality, location, fan sentiment, and perceived stakes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The 2025 bowl season reinforced several key points regarding attendance forecasting:
Relative demand is more predictable than exact attendance totals
A small number of factors drive a disproportionate share of variance
Fan behavior is shaped as much by context and perception as by geography and brand
Overall, the model was effective as a comparative and directional tool. The 2025 results gave valuable insight into how bowl-specific dynamics affect real-world attendance.
