Bucked-Up LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk– Boise State vs. Washington

Date: December 13, 2025

Venue: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA (70,240 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 27,287 (38% capacity)

Historical Avg: 29,868 (42% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• This year marks the first time since 2021 that the LA Bowl does not feature a California-based school

• Boise State and Washington both have strong West Coast followings and traveling fanbases, but must travel further that past participants (minimum ~600 miles)

• Washington’s brand power helps stabilize attendance despite travel distance

• SoFi Stadium offers visibility and tourism appeal

Attendance in this bowl has historically been strongest when at least one participant is regionally based. This projection aligns with past outcomes for matchups requiring longer travel.

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl– Troy vs. Jacksonville State

Date: December 16, 2025

Venue: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, AL (21,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 18,379 (88% capacity)

Historical Avg: 13,316 (63% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• A regional pairing that benefits strongly from proximity. This is one of the most travel-convenient travel matchups of the early bowl season

• Very drivable for both fanbases (within ~100 miles), which historically boosts bowl attendance due to same-day travel feasibility.

• Strong Southeast alum density

Regional matchups have consistently produced higher-than-average turnout for this bowl, and the projection aligns with those historical results.

68 Ventures Bowl– Louisiana vs. Delaware

Date: December 17, 2025

Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium — Mobile, AL (25,450 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 20,536 (81% capacity)

Historical Avg: 20,340 (80% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Louisiana close regional proximity (~230 miles)

• Louisiana’s fanbase helps keep attendance in line with historical expectations

• Mobile, AL bowl games traditionally draw well for competitive group of 5 pairings

Projected attendance largely mirrors historical performance, which has remained stable for regional pairings of this type.

StaffDNA Cure Bowl– Old Dominion vs. USF

Date: December 17, 2025

Venue: FBC Mortgage Stadium — Orlando, FL (60,219 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 12,155 (20% capacity)

Historical Avg: 11,183 (19% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• One of the most travel-friendly matchups of bowl season due to USF’s proximity.

• USF benefits from a near-home environment (~70 miles from the venue)

• Orlando historically boosts attendance when featuring Florida programs

Large venue size and pre-holiday timing have historically led to lower percentage fills for this bowl. The projection aligns closely with those trends.

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl– Memphis vs. NC State

Date: December 19, 2025

Venue: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL (65,857 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 33,504 (51% capacity)

Historical Avg: 35,374 (54% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Similar travel distances for both teams (~600 miles) with no clear geographic advantage

• NC State’s larger fanbase and higher brand power typically translates into stronger bowl travel

• Power conference presence supports demand and lifts casual interest

Attendance at this bowl has historically been shaped by regional reach and conference affiliation. This projection fits within established patterns for similar matchups.

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine– Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan

Date: December 19, 2025

Venue: Brooks Stadium – Conway, SC (21,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 9,192 (44% capacity)

Historical Avg: 9,415 (45% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Myrtle Beach is a destination bowl, which entices fans to travel regardless of the distance

• Typical matchup for this particular bowl game, data supports predicted attendance consistent with historical avg

Percentage fills for this bowl have typically remained within this range given timing, venue size, and matchup profile.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl– Washington State vs. Utah State

Date: December 22, 2025

Venue: Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID (36,387 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 13,351 (37% capacity)

Historical Avg: 10,883 (30% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Shorter travel distances are a major attendance booster, especially for cold-weather bowls where proximity becomes critical

• Both programs’ regional alum dispersion supports strong localized turnout

Historically, cold-weather bowls show lower percentage fills even with regional teams. This projection aligns with that long-term trend.

The Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans– Louisville vs. Toledo

Date: December 23, 2025

Venue: FAU Stadium – Boca Raton, FL (30,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 18,651 (62% capacity)

Historical Avg: 20,667 (69% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Both teams travel over 600 miles, historically decreasing attendance for pre-Christmas bowls

• Louisville’s larger fanbase and brand power help offset long-distance drawbacks

• Power conference presence supports demand and lifts casual interest

This bowl often varies significantly by timing and travel load. The projection reflects turnout patterns typically associated with non-regional matchups.

The Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl– UNLV vs. Ohio

Date: December 23, 2025

Venue: Toyota Stadium – Frisco, TX (12,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 10,582 (88% capacity)

Historical Avg: 11,816 (57% capacity) *Previously held at Toyota Center (20,500 capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Both teams travel over 900 miles, which usually lowers attendance for Group of 5 bowls

• UNLV’s talent composition creates more on-field draw, moderating attendance drop-off

Turnout typically lands within this range when both participants face long-distance travel.

New Orleans Bowl– Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Date: December 23, 2025

Venue: Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA (41,426 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 13,407 (32% capacity)

Historical Avg: 13,697 (33% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Southern Miss’s short travel (~100 miles) strongly boosts turnout, particularly for a pre-Christmas game where long-distance travel is limited

Turnout has historically been consistent for this bowl, especially when featuring a regional participant.

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl– Hawaii vs. Cal

Date: December 23, 2025

Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Stadium – Honolulu, HI (15,194 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 9,410 (62% capacity)

Historical Avg: 6,805 (45% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Bowl attendance is shaped almost entirely by Hawaii’s local presence

• Hawaii makes an appearance for the first time since 2021

• Holiday-week timing boosts local turnout in Honolulu

Attendance traditionally reflects Hawaii’s drawing power and localized fan base. This projection aligns with historical behavior for this event.

Servpro First Responder Bowl– FIU vs. UTSA

Date: December 23, 2025

Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas, TX (32,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 20,463 (64% capacity)

Historical Avg: 21,870 (68% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• UTSA benefits from in-state proximity, historically a major factor in Texas bowl attendance

• FIU’s large fanbase provides wider pool of potential travelers despite longer distance

• Featuring a Texas program boosts attendance for Dallas-based bowls

Turnout for this bowl has generally tracked closely with the presence of a Texas program. This projection fits that pattern.

GameAbove Sports Bowl– Central Michigan vs. Northwestern

Date: December 26, 2025

Venue: Ford Field – Detroit, MI (65,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 26,207 (40% capacity)

Historical Avg: 25,909 (40% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Reasonable travel distance for both teams (less than 240 miles) increases same-day attendance potential

• Northwestern’s large fanbase and high brand power help elevate demand beyond typical MAC-level turnout

• Indoor venue eliminates weather-related variation, supporting stable attendance 

Attendance for this bowl has historically tracked with regional accessibility and brand presence. The projection closely mirrors past outcomes.

Rate Bowl– New Mexico vs. Minnesota

Date: December 26, 2025

Venue: Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ (40,033 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 23,262 (47% capacity)

Historical Avg: 23,775 (48% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• New Mexico benefits from being regionally located (less than 330 miles), historically a strong indicator for this bowl

• Minnesota’s large fanbase supports long-distance bowl travel, and the team’s brand and talent increases interest from neutral fans

Turnout for this bowl has historically aligned with regional representation balanced by a strong-traveling visiting fanbase. This projection reflects those dynamics.

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop– Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: Arizona Stadium – Tucson, AZ (50,782 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 34,728 (68% capacity)

Historical Avg: 32,732 (64% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Fresno State’s moderate travel range supports a decent turnout from its regional fanbase

• Miami (OH)’s long travel lowers expected representation, shifting the attendance load toward Fresno

Historical attendance has been notably influenced by regional participation. This projection reflects that established pattern.

Wasabi Fenway Bowl– UConn vs. Army

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: Fenway Park – Boston, MA (37,755 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 21,665 (57% capacity)

Historical Avg: 20,313 (54% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• UConn’s extremely close proximity (~70 miles) provides a strong built-in attendance base

• Army’s extensive national alum network reliably supports bowl travel regardless of location

• Fenway’s novelty as a bowl venue consistently boosts neutral and local attendance

This bowl has historically benefited from regional matchups and novelty appeal. The projection is consistent with past outcomes.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl– Missouri vs. Virginia (19)

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL (67,814 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 48,835 (72% capacity)

Historical Avg: 53,758 (79% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Both teams travel comparable distances, creating balanced fan representation

• Power conference matchup with competitive profiles helps maintain demand near the historical average

Historically, this bowl performs strongest with high-brand matchups. This projection fits the expected range for a balanced, mid-distance pairing.

Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com– Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: Navy–Marine Corps Stadium – Annapolis, MD (34,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 26,220 (77% capacity)

Historical Avg: 25,935  (76% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Nearly identical travel distances (~225 miles) create an evenly accessible matchup

• Pittsburgh's large fanbase provides additional stability in turnout

• Strong regional alum concentrations for both programs support drive-in attendance

The bowl historically benefits from regional proximity for both teams. This projection aligns closely with prior years’ performance.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl– North Texas vs. San Diego State

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM (39,224 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 24,747 (63% capacity)

Historical Avg: 25,268 (64% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Both teams travel mid-range distances, reducing disparity in attendance share

• Large fanbases on both sides help maintain turnout levels consistent with the bowl’s historical average despite the longer travel distances

Attendance has historically remained stable for matchups without a local or near-local team. The projection mirrors this consistency.

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl– Clemson vs. Penn State

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: Yankee Stadium – New York, NY (50,291 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 37,335 (74% capacity)

Historical Avg: 32,169 (64% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Penn State benefits from very short travel (~200 miles), historically a major driver of bowl game turnout in the Northeast

• Clemson adds another large national fanbase, boosting demand beyond average levels of the bowl

• High-profile brands generate strong neutral-market attendance in New York

• Penn State has a massive alum-base in New York City, significantly boosting attendance

This bowl has historically seen significant lifts when featuring at least one large-brand, short-travel program. The projection aligns closely with that behavior.

Pop-Tarts Bowl– BYU (12) vs. Georgia Tech (22)

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL (60,219 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 40,297 (67% capacity)

Historical Avg: 43,760 (72% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• BYU’s extensive alum dispersion supports national travel despite extremely long distance

• Georgia Tech’s shorter travel provides strong Southeastern fan presence

• Both team’s sizable fan bases contribute to a stable attendance floor

Attendance for this bowl often reflects the balance of a national-traveling fanbase paired with a regional program. This projection aligns with historical outcomes for similar matchups.

Note: Our model shows that if Notre Dame had been slotted into the Pop-Tarts Bowl, attendance would rise to 50,340, more than 6,000 above the bowl’s historical average. This uplift is driven by Notre Dame’s unmatched national fanbase reach and strong travel behavior.

Kinder’s Texas Bowl– LSU vs. Houston

Date: December 27, 2025

Venue: NRG Stadium – Houston, TX (71,795 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 48,720 (68% capacity)

Historical Avg: 54,232 (76% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Houston is effectively the home team (single digit travel miles), providing a major attendance anchor

• LSU’s short travel (~250 miles) and elite fanbase size drive strong regional turnout

Turnout typically surges when at least one participant is Texas-based. This projection reflects established behavior for similar SEC–AAC or SEC–Big 12 matchups.

The JLab Birmingham Bowl– Georgia Southern vs. App State

Date: December 29, 2025

Venue: Protective Stadium – Birmingham, AL (47,100 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 22,721 (48% capacity)

Historical Avg: 23,25 (49% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Nearly identical travel distances ensure balanced fan turnout

• Both alum bases are regionally located, supporting potential drive-in attendance

• Rivalry-style profile enhances regional engagement, keeping attendance on par with historical averages

Birmingham bowls with regional Group of Five matchups have historically produced turnout within this range. The projection aligns closely with prior years.

Valero Alamo Bowl– USC (16) vs. TCU

Date: December 30, 2025

Venue: Alamodome – San Antonio, TX (64,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 56,649 (89% capacity)

Historical Avg: 60,958 (95% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• TCU’s shorter travel supports a strong in-state turnout

• USC’s large, national fanbase and high brand power help offset the long-distance travel

The Alamo Bowl has consistently delivered strong attendance for high-profile Power Conference matchups. This projection fits established long-term performance.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl– Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Date: December 30, 2025

Venue: Independence Stadium – Shreveport, LA (50,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance 29,672 (59% capacity)

Historical Avg: 30,255 (61% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Louisiana Tech benefits from extremely short travel (~65 miles), a major boost for this bowl historically

• Coastal Carolina’s longer travel remains typical with Sun Belt Conference’s travel habits

Turnout for this bowl has traditionally been strongest with a near-local participant. This projection reflects those dynamics.

The Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl– Tennessee vs. Illinois

Date: December 30, 2025

Venue: Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN (68,798 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 47,128 (69% capacity)

Historical Avg: 45,258 (66% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Tennessee’s very close travel (~160 miles), creates on of the strongest attendance advantages in bowl season

• Illinois’ drivable distance (~282 miles) supports meaningful fan turnout

• Tennessee’s larger fanbase uplifts demand slightly above historical norms

When featuring a near-local SEC program, this bowl has historically exceeded its baseline. This projection aligns with that pattern.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl– Michigan (18) vs. Texas (13)

Date: December 31, 2025

Venue: Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL (60,219 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 52,137 (87% capacity)

Historical Avg: 43,326 (72% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Two of the largest fanbases in the country dramatically expand attendance potential

• High brand and talent profiles elevate national interest well-above typical non-CFP bowl game levels

• Balance travel distances support strong fan turnout on both sides

• *The recent news on Michigan’s coaching situation may have an impact on attendance that cannot currently be projected

This bowl typically performs well with marquee matchups. The projection aligns with turnout levels observed when featuring two national brands.

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl– Nebraska vs. Utah (15)

Date: December 31, 2025

Venue: Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV (65,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 24,760 (38% capacity)

Historical Avg: 25,773 (40% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Utah benefits from being regionally located, supporting strong representation

• Nebraska’s historically reliable bowl travel offsets long-distance demands

• Destination setting improves neutral and non-aligned attendance

This bowl has historically produced mid-range turnout when featuring one regional and one long-distance participant. The projection tracks closely with past behavior.

Reliaquest Bowl– Iowa (23) vs. Vanderbilt (14)

Date: December 31, 2025

Venue: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL (65,857 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 33,416 (51% capacity)

Historical Avg: 33,611 (51% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Iowa’s large fanbase helps overcome long-distance travel to Florida bowls

• Vanderbilt's moderate travel distance enhances fan turnout

• Balanced Power 4 matchup yields consistent attendance patterns

Turnout has historically remained steady when the matchup includes at least one high-travel fanbase. This projection reflects that trend.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl– Arizona State vs. Duke

Date: December 31, 2025

Venue: Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, TX (52,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 43,968 (85% capacity)

Historical Avg: 44,664 (86% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Arizona State’s regional location strengthens turnout

• Duke’s extensive alum dispersion often offsets long-distance travel

• Both teams’ large fanbases support stable demand

The Sun Bowl has traditionally delivered strong attendance with regional representation paired with a national-alumni program. This projection is consistent with those outcomes.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl– Texas State vs. Rice

Date: January 2, 2026

Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX (47,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 42,822 (91% capacity)

Historical Avg: 41,819 (89% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Average travel distance is ~217 miles, enabling drive-in attendance

• Regional alum bases for in-state programs enhance turnout

This bowl has historically excelled when featuring two Texas programs, and the projection aligns with those results.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl– Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

Date: January 2, 2026

Venue: Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC (75,523 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 38,281 (51% capacity)

Historical Avg: 37,360 (49% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Wake Forest’s extremely close travel (~70 miles) drives strong fan turnout

• Mississippi State’s larger fanbase supports meaningful long-distance turnout

• SEC-ACC structure historically drives demand in Charlotte, regardless of matchup 

This bowl consistently performs within this range for matchups featuring a local ACC program paired with a traveling SEC team. The projection reflects that pattern.

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl– Arizona vs. SMU

Date: January 2, 2026

Venue: Petco Park – San Diego, CA (35,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 32,215 (92% capacity)

Historical Avg: 31,826 (91% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Arizona benefits from being regionally located

• SMU’s long travel (~1100 miles) lowers expected representation, increasing Arizona’s impact on total turnout

• Arizona’s strong talent and brand elevate matchup appeal

The Holiday Bowl has long performed strongest with a regional participant. This projection mirrors that trend.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl– Navy vs. Cincinnati

Date: January 2, 2026

Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium – Memphis, TN (50,000 capacity)

Predicted Attendance: 44,620 (89% capacity)

Historical Avg: 46,467 (93% capacity)

Key Drivers:

• Navy’s extensive alum network reliably supports bowl game attendance nationwide

• Cincinnati's moderate travel drives regional turnout

• Both programs possess large, engaged fanbases contributing to elevated attendance potential, bringing projected attendance closer to historical average

This bowl has historically performed well with large fanbases and regional pairing structures. The projection aligns with past patterns.

POWERED BY OPTIMATCH

These attendance projections were generated using Optimatch, CSMG’s data-driven matchup optimization platform. Optimatch integrates key variables such as fanbase size, travel distance, alum dispersion, brand strength, and matchup quality to forecast demand across college sports.

The tool’s ability to model attendance with an extremely low error rate underscores its reliability—not just for bowl season, but for regular-season scheduling, event planning, and strategic decision-making across our partner network.

Optimatch allows us to evaluate how specific matchup characteristics influence turnout and to compare projected attendance against historical benchmarks. These bowl forecasts showcase exactly how the platform can reveal demand patterns and help schools, conferences, and properties build higher-value game inventories.